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Grant Cates, Ph.D.

Senior Project Leader with The Aerospace Corporation

Expert in the application of discrete event simulation (DES) modeling and analysis of human spaceflight programs. Twenty-two years of development and operational experience with the Space Shuttle. Ten years of leading simulation modeling and analysis support to Space Shuttle follow-on programs and projects including Constellation, 21st Century Ground Systems, Ground Systems Development and Operations Program, and Space Launch System. Two years as a mission crew member (Weapons Director) on the E-3 Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS).

Posts by Grant Cates, Ph.D.

Launch Probability in NASA Space Launch System

By Grant Cates, Ph.D., Senior Project Leader
Published: October 2, 2017

Launcher’s Lurgy causes space launch vehicles to be delayed relative to their planned launch date. The disorder is similar in nature to Loser’s Lurgy, a condition causing Quidditch players to perform poorly, first described by Luna Lovegood in J.K. Rowling’s enormously successful Harry Potter series. There is no known cure for Launcher’s Lurgy but simulation modeling can be used to develop predictions for how many launches can be achieved over a particular time period and when any particular launch of interest is likely to launch by.

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